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By: - 10th June 2011 at 18:40 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I wonder if Mirage F1 could be updated according to what the Moroccan Mirages got, but there have to be enough Mirages F1 to warrant an upgrade. Maybe they would buy the last Mirages that are used by the AdlA, but those are probably getting long in the tooth.
0r else... Rafales for Libya :diablo:
Nic
By: - 10th June 2011 at 19:12 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The Mirage F1s were updated, just recently in France - see the examples which defected to Malta at the beginning of the conflict.
generally speaking, most air frames in the Libya AF have very low hours on them.
By: - 10th June 2011 at 19:52 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I would not be surprised to see the UAE trading.in its mirage 2000 and buying rafale after a ceasefire, with the 2000s then being sold to a reformed libyan air force with renewed french technical and training support.
Also, im expecting agusta westland selling choppers to a new libyan air force. Merlin? Aw139?
And for an outside bet, what about airbus military with some 235, 295 or even a400?
By: - 10th June 2011 at 20:35 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Qatar & UAE are openly supporting the rebels, with aircraft taking part in the NATO operation, other weapons, propaganda (e.g. Qatar is hosting rebel satellite TV) & money. That's why I suggested that they might pass on Mirage 2000s either free or cheaply.
Kuwait & Jordan are also pro-rebel, with Kuwait reported as giving money.
By: - 10th June 2011 at 20:58 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Qatar & UAE are openly supporting the rebels, with aircraft taking part in the NATO operation, other weapons, propaganda (e.g. Qatar is hosting rebel satellite TV) & money. That's why I suggested that they might pass on Mirage 2000s either free or cheaply.Kuwait & Jordan are also pro-rebel, with Kuwait reported as giving money.
makes me wonder.. if the US or Europe ever decide to attack Iran.. how many Arab countries would join the coalition?
By: - 10th June 2011 at 21:01 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Iranians are not arabs, does that answer your question?
Nic
By: - 10th June 2011 at 21:04 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Iranians are not arabs, does that answer your question?Nic
not at all.
so if the US or NATO/Europe attacked Iran
what Arab country would support them (i.e. Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, SA, etc).
what does Iranians not being Arab have to do with it? Some Arab speaking countries are pro Iran, others are not.
By: - 10th June 2011 at 21:06 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
OK, we have the F16s B30 that HAF has decided that won't be upgraded and if we search all hangars we may come up with some Mirage F1s. Also in HAF's museum there are a couple of F104s. Oh and the RF4Es that are supposed to be retired this year, but we could arrange for a "hot transfer" to Libya... We need the money, we can beat any other offer. :D
By: - 10th June 2011 at 21:08 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
OK, we have the F16s B30 that HAF has decided that won't be upgraded and if we search all hangars we may come up with some Mirage F1s. Also in HAF's museum there are a couple of F104s. Oh and the RF4Es that are supposed to be retired this year, but we could arrange for a "hot transfer" to Libya... We need the money, we can beat any other offer. :D
how are Greece relations with Libya? I know Libya and Bulgaria had some bad relations.. does this mean Greece is good with Qadaffi?
By: - 10th June 2011 at 21:10 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
not at all.so if the US or NATO/Europe attacked Iran
what Arab country would support them (i.e. Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, SA, etc).what does Iranians not being Arab have to do with it? Some Arab speaking countries are pro Iran, others are not.
All Arabs are sunni muslims. Iranians are shia muslims (like a fly in the milk). Iran has disputes with UAE about some tiny islands in the Persian Gulf, so one should not expect sympathy from there. Saudis also don't like the Iranian will to be the controller in the straits. The only "glue" could be the presence of USA - the devil- that could unite the population in the streets, but i don't think the arab goverments would do anything substantial to help Iran.
how are Greece relations with Libya? I know Libya and Bulgaria had some bad relations.. does this mean Greece is good with Qadaffi?
I don't think we have a policy about Libya. Our goverment is shaking, our PM is sweating trying to fight against his own flesh (the unions, the interests that supported him, the mentality his party cultivated for 30 years), he is not likely to see the end of the year as PM, i am sure if you ask him "what's your policy for Gadaffi" he will answer "I don't know, there are others working on that, a guy called Nicolas i think".
Greece used to have good relations in the 80s with Gadaffi (Papandreou Senior), some greek businessmen import (or used to import before the bombings) oil from Libya, but we had problems about the limits of continental shelf. So, yes, i 'd say we don't have a policy right now.
By: - 11th June 2011 at 16:07 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
All Arabs are sunni muslims.
Not true.
There are Christian Arab minorities in Egypt (several million - & a majority in some parts of the country), Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan & among the Palestinians.
There are Druze (Arabs with an obscure religion) in Israel, Lebanon & Syria.
The government of Syria is dominated by Alawite (a sect which some class as Shia, some as a separate branch of Islam) Arabs.
Iraq & Bahrain have Shia Arab majorities, & there are Shia Arab minorities in Lebanon, Iran, Saudi Arabia, & other states.
This is not necessarily a complete list.
By: - 11th June 2011 at 17:29 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Not true.There are Christian Arab minorities in Egypt (several million - & a majority in some parts of the country), Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan & among the Palestinians.
There are Druze (Arabs with an obscure religion) in Israel, Lebanon & Syria.
The government of Syria is dominated by Alawite (a sect which some class as Shia, some as a separate branch of Islam) Arabs.
Iraq & Bahrain have Shia Arab majorities, & there are Shia Arab minorities in Lebanon, Iran, Saudi Arabia, & other states.
This is not necessarily a complete list.
Correct, but none have enough influence to do something to influence an operation against Iran. Syria even if wanted (that doesn't) has her own trouble. Bahrain will side with the rest of Emirates. In Egypt the Christians have no power whatsover, as a matter of fact about a month ago the higher religious authority of the Egyptian Copt Christians in Greece, was telling to the TV that the Christians in Egypt are afraid and that have been victims of progroms by muslims after the fall of Mubarak.
By: - 11th June 2011 at 17:31 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Doesnt look like NATO is gonna win this one, and if thats the case, where would Lybia get new A/C from?
By: - 11th June 2011 at 17:48 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Doesnt look like NATO is gonna win this one, and if thats the case, where would Lybia get new A/C from?
There are more than enough left for the basic needs of Libya after Gaddafi. The support of that is covered by Russia and France at first.
By: - 11th June 2011 at 18:03 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The natural choice would be something French. Why not Rafale? Libyans have enough money.
By: - 11th June 2011 at 18:33 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The natural choice would be something French. Why not Rafale? Libyans have enough money.
In the first years the money is in need to "rebuilt" the country at first before someone will look into the limited AF needs. The main problem is to find military people not linked to Gaddafi before. For the first air-policing needs two squadrons of interceptors will be sufficiant. Maybe some time in future the Rafale will be an option.
By: - 11th June 2011 at 20:21 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The UAE Mirage 2000´s would make alot of sense, though I guess it depends if anybody else steps up to buy them (Greece was a possibility, but they have obvious budget problems currently). A lead-in jet trainer with some attack capability ala Hawk or M346 could make sense as well... but overall I don`t see a military build-up as a big priority of a new government.
There`s also the aspect that the `Rebel Council` or whatever is only the rebels in Bengazi and the eastern parts they control, and doesn`t include anybody from the rest of the county (Misurata, Tripoli, the west and south, etc). Some of the Bengahazi guys are `jihadi` fighters with experience from Afghanistan, and the GCC emirates seem to be happy funding these guys... but that relationship doesn`t seem to exist with other Libyan rebels. Again, I don`t think a military build-up will be a priority however it ends up, but the reality of the country as a whole, rather than just the groups who had the most initial military success, is a big unknown factor.
Re: what Arab states would support an attack on Iran, it`s kind of a silly proposition, I don`t think anybody is seriously thinking of attacking Iran (US, Israel, Europe), and even the GCC countries would not actually strongly push for such a move.
Igonoring that, the countries who would support it (in word or deed) would potentially include: Morocco (close to GCC), Jordan (same, in the crypto-Zionist league), and the GCC regimes (Oman and Kuwait being least likely IMHO)... All those unless they are over-thrown/have a revolution, of course.
Those who wouldn`t support it: Mauritania, Algeria, Tunisa, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq...
So basically the crypto-Zionist-GCC axis vs. everybody else. ...If that were on the cards.
Honestly, I found Aspis` take very far off the mark, the size of non-Sunni populations in these countries is irrelevant, because it`s not a matter of non-Sunni populations influencing policy in sectarian directions (well, possibly besides Iraq), but the population at large not influencing policy of the anti-democratic US-GCC-Israeli-aligned repressive regimes (in the case of Lebanon you have formal democracy but non-transparentcy, thus the previous `pro Western` faction has a base that is just as anti-Zionist as the faction including Hizbollah and Aoun). I doubt any Arab country has popular support for any attacks against Iran even though most of them are Sunni and Iran is not... The Iranian president is moderately popular in Arab countries populations, not so much because all his policies are admired, but because he is opposed to the Israelis and Americans.
By: - 11th June 2011 at 20:46 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Any chance of China selling to Gaddafi once this is all over?
By: - 11th June 2011 at 21:08 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Any chance of China selling to Gaddafi once this is all over?
No high ticket items. The NATO countries will use their privileged position in Libya, their relationship to the rebs, to get weapons deals that are to their liking. Libya's future combat jets, ships, and armored vehicles will, in all likelihood, be Western types.
If they buy new it will be the Rafale or the Eurofighter, if used it will most likely be something French.
By: - 12th June 2011 at 04:10 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
China would fill in any vacuum. Neo-colonialism is real. Africa is showing it's effects. The problem is China has no significant indigenous aircraft to offer. They could maybe offer J-8, but what's the value there? Highly unlikely they are in position to offer J-10 or JF-17. Perhaps K-8, but it's not a very heavy jet. I cannot see any way Libya would benefit from J-7. Just unlikely China could horn in on any deal in this respect.
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By: swerve - 10th June 2011 at 17:59
Assuming that Gaddafi is overthrown, & the interim national council is the basis for the new government, how is it likely to rebuild its air force?
I believe we should take into account -
1) any remaining undamaged (stayed on the ground, defected) or repairable aircraft which could be put back into service
2) who has backed the rebels, & will therefore be in favour with the new regime
3) the scale of anticipated external threats to the new regime (very small, IMO)
4) the priority of defence in spending
I wonder if Qatar might be willing to donate, or sell at a discount, its Mirage 2000s to the new Libyan government. The UAE is another possible source of secondhand Mirage 2000s. Qatar tried to sell its Mirages a few years ago, & the UAE is reported to be seeking a deal for any new supplier to take on its old Mirages.
Refurbished Mirage F1s, both any surviving Libyan examples & any stored or retiring aircraft from other countries that might be available, are a possible interim option. Does Jordan have any left?