By: Distiller
- 12th June 2011 at 07:24Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
China would fill in any vacuum. Neo-colonialism is real. Africa is showing it's effects. The problem is China has no significant indigenous aircraft to offer. They could maybe offer J-8, but what's the value there? Highly unlikely they are in position to offer J-10 or JF-17. Perhaps K-8, but it's not a very heavy jet. I cannot see any way Libya would benefit from J-7. Just unlikely China could horn in on any deal in this respect.
Not yet time for China to go head-to-head with Europe in its own neighborhood.
By: Aspis
- 12th June 2011 at 08:18Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Libya, if Gadaffi "agrees" to flee with is family (since his whole issue must be to leave his son as heir), will be "french territory". Sarkozy isn't spending all that good money on bombs neither did he lead the charge just to let someone else get the contracts afterwards. This is France's Iraq gentlemen, the next puppet goverment will give the contract to Dassault before doing anything else. :D
By: Twinblade
- 12th June 2011 at 08:29Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
No high ticket items. The NATO countries will use their privileged position in Libya, their relationship to the rebs, to get weapons deals that are to their liking. Libya's future combat jets, ships, and armored vehicles will, in all likelihood, be Western types.
If they buy new it will be the Rafale or the Eurofighter, if used it will most likely be something French.
Afghanistan is buying Russian choppers. Iraq is buying czech trainers and putting off F-16 purchase indefinitely as they need money for nation building (they did buy M1A1's though), and when they will have money, it would be far less to buy western equipment in sufficient numbers. Russian and Chinese equipment comes cheap, and if you don't lash out brutal training and hours like NATO does, then they also cost cheaper to maintain.... and they come without strings, are good enough for airspace patrolling and giving an occasional scare to their neighbors.
Western victory does not ensure sale of western equipment, unless significant pressure is put on the defeated nations. A decade down the line the new regime will try to maintain a healthy distance from the "agressors" in order to look neutral to their home crowds, that is when the Russians and now the Chinese too will make their sales pitch.
By: Twinblade
- 12th June 2011 at 08:32Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Libya, if Gadaffi "agrees" to flee with is family (since his whole issue must be to leave his son as heir), will be "french territory". Sarkozy isn't spending all that good money on bombs neither did he lead the charge just to let someone else get the contracts afterwards. This is France's Iraq gentlemen, the next puppet goverment will give the contract to Dassault before doing anything else. :D
I would be surprised if Dassault manage to sell a single Rafale to liberated Libya, Rafale despite all its merits almost appears to be jinxed :p
By: swerve
- 12th June 2011 at 11:21Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
... but overall I don`t see a military build-up as a big priority of a new government.
Agreed. I was thinking more in terms of a relatively modest but functional force, for air policing & enforcing sovereignty. That's why I mentioned secondhand & refurbished aircraft, perhaps from Arab countries which are helping the rebels, rather than anything new, such as Rafales.
IMO, any new government is likely to focus on reconstruction first, but because Libya has a reliable source of considerable income & (assuming Gaddafi doesn't squander the lot quickly) significant cash reserves, it should have something to spare for reconstructing the air force.
There`s also the aspect that the `Rebel Council` or whatever is only the rebels in Bengazi and the eastern parts they control, and doesn`t include anybody from the rest of the county (Misurata, Tripoli, the west and south, etc).
Not true. The TNC has members from Tripoli & other parts of the west, & has had since it was formed. They're a mix of new defectors & long-established dissidents who returned from exile to take part in the rebellion. Most of them don't appear in public because they're afraid of reprisals against their relatives by Gaddafi, but foreign envoys have met them, & confirmed that they exist. Some, whose families are safely out of Gaddafi's reach, are open members.
By: zmoreira
- 13th June 2011 at 19:17Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Is there any point in buying fighter airplanes again? Gaddafi bought them in abundance and what good did that do? He should have bought submarines instead.
By: 19kilo10
- 13th June 2011 at 23:55Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The way things appear to be going, Gaddafi isnt going anywhere and will be in charge of Libya for a long time to come, so who will he be buying airplanes from?
By: ananda
- 14th June 2011 at 09:27Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The way things appear to be going, Gaddafi isnt going anywhere and will be in charge of Libya for a long time to come, so who will he be buying airplanes from?
By: TEEJ
- 14th June 2011 at 17:44Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The way things appear to be going, Gaddafi isnt going anywhere and will be in charge of Libya for a long time to come, so who will he be buying airplanes from?
As long as Gaddafi is in power nobody is going to be selling him arms. The embargo will remain in place. Do you honestly think that the arms embargo is going to be reversed at the UN? Not a chance.
Posts: 4,674
By: Distiller - 12th June 2011 at 07:24 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Not yet time for China to go head-to-head with Europe in its own neighborhood.
Posts: 971
By: Aspis - 12th June 2011 at 08:18 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Libya, if Gadaffi "agrees" to flee with is family (since his whole issue must be to leave his son as heir), will be "french territory". Sarkozy isn't spending all that good money on bombs neither did he lead the charge just to let someone else get the contracts afterwards. This is France's Iraq gentlemen, the next puppet goverment will give the contract to Dassault before doing anything else. :D
Posts: 1,642
By: Twinblade - 12th June 2011 at 08:29 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Afghanistan is buying Russian choppers. Iraq is buying czech trainers and putting off F-16 purchase indefinitely as they need money for nation building (they did buy M1A1's though), and when they will have money, it would be far less to buy western equipment in sufficient numbers. Russian and Chinese equipment comes cheap, and if you don't lash out brutal training and hours like NATO does, then they also cost cheaper to maintain.... and they come without strings, are good enough for airspace patrolling and giving an occasional scare to their neighbors.
Western victory does not ensure sale of western equipment, unless significant pressure is put on the defeated nations. A decade down the line the new regime will try to maintain a healthy distance from the "agressors" in order to look neutral to their home crowds, that is when the Russians and now the Chinese too will make their sales pitch.
Posts: 1,642
By: Twinblade - 12th June 2011 at 08:32 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I would be surprised if Dassault manage to sell a single Rafale to liberated Libya, Rafale despite all its merits almost appears to be jinxed :p
Posts: 13,432
By: swerve - 12th June 2011 at 11:21 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Agreed. I was thinking more in terms of a relatively modest but functional force, for air policing & enforcing sovereignty. That's why I mentioned secondhand & refurbished aircraft, perhaps from Arab countries which are helping the rebels, rather than anything new, such as Rafales.
IMO, any new government is likely to focus on reconstruction first, but because Libya has a reliable source of considerable income & (assuming Gaddafi doesn't squander the lot quickly) significant cash reserves, it should have something to spare for reconstructing the air force.
Not true. The TNC has members from Tripoli & other parts of the west, & has had since it was formed. They're a mix of new defectors & long-established dissidents who returned from exile to take part in the rebellion. Most of them don't appear in public because they're afraid of reprisals against their relatives by Gaddafi, but foreign envoys have met them, & confirmed that they exist. Some, whose families are safely out of Gaddafi's reach, are open members.
Posts: 1,542
By: j_jza80 - 13th June 2011 at 01:35 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I know of a few Harriers sat around doing nothing. :D
Posts: 13
By: zmoreira - 13th June 2011 at 19:17 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Is there any point in buying fighter airplanes again? Gaddafi bought them in abundance and what good did that do? He should have bought submarines instead.
Posts: 770
By: 19kilo10 - 13th June 2011 at 23:55 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The way things appear to be going, Gaddafi isnt going anywhere and will be in charge of Libya for a long time to come, so who will he be buying airplanes from?
Posts: 506
By: ananda - 14th June 2011 at 09:27 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
He will buy it from Sarkozy ;)
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By: TEEJ - 14th June 2011 at 17:44 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
As long as Gaddafi is in power nobody is going to be selling him arms. The embargo will remain in place. Do you honestly think that the arms embargo is going to be reversed at the UN? Not a chance.
TJ