By: Anonymous
- 26th May 2010 at 16:33Permalink- Edited 22nd October 2019 at 22:31
I understand all of these things can certainly contribute to reductions, but take the Super Hornet vs. Legacy Hornets- there was a lot of actual physical redesign involved, as well as additional RAM treatment, radar blockers, change of radar array type, etc.. The Flanker's shape hasn't changed much, was what I was concerned about.
Other than the inlets and serrated panels, the Hornet's shape didn't really change much either, in terms of LO (the blocker is arguably a band aid that could be retrofitted). Most of the structural redesign was intended to increase internal fuel capacity and bring back capability.
We'll have to wait and see about the canopy and radome mods.
The canopy, already in service on the MiG-29K, is probably at least being tested on Su-30MK #02.
My point wasn't that updates were available. It was how many have been updated(i.e. how many Flankers in the RuAF are comparable to an MKI variant, if any, etc.....). The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of the RuAF has been updated very little.
Which, as I pointed out, was due to lack of money. Apart from the MiG-29SMT (which were practically new-built), all of the programmes I mentioned are now going ahead pending introduction of successor aircraft like the T-50, Su-34 and Su-35. Besides, it's not just Russia upgrading older fighters, India is updating its MiG-29 fleet and of course they have the MiG-21 Bison (the MiG-27 is primarily an Indo-Israeli effort, though).
By: wrightwing
- 26th May 2010 at 16:47Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Let me rephrase the question- what do you envision the RuAF looking like in terms of updated aircraft in terms of total numbers of Fulcrums and Flankers brought up to SMT/MKI comparable specs, along with Su-34s, 35s, and 50s, in say 2015, 2020? The fact of the matter is that the RuAF budget is still nothing spectacular.
By: haavarla
- 26th May 2010 at 17:07Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Let me rephrase the question- what do you envision the RuAF looking like in terms of updated aircraft in terms of total numbers of Fulcrums and Flankers brought up to SMT/MKI comparable specs, along with Su-34s, 35s, and 50s, in say 2015, 2020? The fact of the matter is that the RuAF budget is still nothing spectacular.
Let me answer that one.:)
I envision the RuAF getting the cut axe in the years to follow.
The whole RuAF will shrink, mostly personel but also equipment.
But in 2015 the RuAF should have its first regiment of Su-34.
Most likely one regiment of Su-35S too.
One regiment of Yak-130.
Upgradet Su-25SMs and Su-24 too.
Its somewhat difficult to guess the exact nummbers of Flanker & Fulcrum,
but we can excpect the ones with most service hour to be retired at a steady rate.
Give it 2020. The Pak-Fa will be in service.
An adittional Regiment of Su-34.
A extra regiment of Su-35S, depending on if the T-50 is delayed much..!
Its far from the USAF inventory, but all in all it isn't all that bad.
By: dionis
- 26th May 2010 at 18:37Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Let me rephrase the question- what do you envision the RuAF looking like in terms of updated aircraft in terms of total numbers of Fulcrums and Flankers brought up to SMT/MKI comparable specs, along with Su-34s, 35s, and 50s, in say 2015, 2020? The fact of the matter is that the RuAF budget is still nothing spectacular.
The Su-25 fate has yet to be determined. They could re-launch production of the jet, and many are going through upgrades, so in 2015 - 2020 feel free to figure out how many airframes are still airworthy AFTER thorough overhaul and upgrade. Same for the Su-24M2, but with slightly less priority as the RuAF builds around 200 Su-34s. Similar situation for the MiG-31 and Su-27, with upgrades going to BM and SM standard.
Su-35s should start coming into service and we can expect 2 full regiments in 2015.
2015 we can expect the first production models of the PAK-FA.
The TU-95MS, Tu-22M3 will be kept around until 2025, with upgrades to carry more PGMs. The newest airframes will be updated first, and many Tu-95MS-16s and Tu-22M3s have very fresh airframes.
The Tu-160 will be built forward until 40 airframes are in service, one every 18 months.
How many aircraft will there be exactly? No one knows. Here's something to consider though: both the USAF/USN aviation and RuAF and RuN aviation will become far FAR leaner.
So a guesstimate would be:
2020 for RuAF and RuN aviation:
~50 - 100 PAK-FA
48 - 50 Su-35S
~200 Su-34
~150 Su-25SM
~150 Su-24M2
~150 MiG-31BM
~150 - 200 Su-27SM
~24 - 48 MiG-29SMT
~ Unknown # of MiG-35 (RuAF has shown interest, no orders yet)
~ Unknown # of Su-33s
~ Unknown # of MiG-29Ks
By: Anonymous - 26th May 2010 at 16:33 Permalink - Edited 22nd October 2019 at 22:31
Other than the inlets and serrated panels, the Hornet's shape didn't really change much either, in terms of LO (the blocker is arguably a band aid that could be retrofitted). Most of the structural redesign was intended to increase internal fuel capacity and bring back capability.
The canopy, already in service on the MiG-29K, is probably at least being tested on Su-30MK #02.
http://www.technologiya.ru/tech/glasse/t0102a.html
http://www.technologiya.ru/tech/nanosystems/t0101e.html
#2 uncoated:
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Russia---Air/Sukhoi-Su-30MK/0915877/L/
coated:
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Russia---Air/Sukhoi-Su-30MK/1571943/L/
Which, as I pointed out, was due to lack of money. Apart from the MiG-29SMT (which were practically new-built), all of the programmes I mentioned are now going ahead pending introduction of successor aircraft like the T-50, Su-34 and Su-35. Besides, it's not just Russia upgrading older fighters, India is updating its MiG-29 fleet and of course they have the MiG-21 Bison (the MiG-27 is primarily an Indo-Israeli effort, though).
Posts: 4,042
By: wrightwing - 26th May 2010 at 16:47 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Let me rephrase the question- what do you envision the RuAF looking like in terms of updated aircraft in terms of total numbers of Fulcrums and Flankers brought up to SMT/MKI comparable specs, along with Su-34s, 35s, and 50s, in say 2015, 2020? The fact of the matter is that the RuAF budget is still nothing spectacular.
Posts: 6,441
By: haavarla - 26th May 2010 at 17:07 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Let me answer that one.:)
I envision the RuAF getting the cut axe in the years to follow.
The whole RuAF will shrink, mostly personel but also equipment.
But in 2015 the RuAF should have its first regiment of Su-34.
Most likely one regiment of Su-35S too.
One regiment of Yak-130.
Upgradet Su-25SMs and Su-24 too.
Its somewhat difficult to guess the exact nummbers of Flanker & Fulcrum,
but we can excpect the ones with most service hour to be retired at a steady rate.
Give it 2020. The Pak-Fa will be in service.
An adittional Regiment of Su-34.
A extra regiment of Su-35S, depending on if the T-50 is delayed much..!
Its far from the USAF inventory, but all in all it isn't all that bad.
Thanks
Posts: 1,856
By: dionis - 26th May 2010 at 18:37 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The Su-25 fate has yet to be determined. They could re-launch production of the jet, and many are going through upgrades, so in 2015 - 2020 feel free to figure out how many airframes are still airworthy AFTER thorough overhaul and upgrade. Same for the Su-24M2, but with slightly less priority as the RuAF builds around 200 Su-34s. Similar situation for the MiG-31 and Su-27, with upgrades going to BM and SM standard.
Su-35s should start coming into service and we can expect 2 full regiments in 2015.
2015 we can expect the first production models of the PAK-FA.
The TU-95MS, Tu-22M3 will be kept around until 2025, with upgrades to carry more PGMs. The newest airframes will be updated first, and many Tu-95MS-16s and Tu-22M3s have very fresh airframes.
The Tu-160 will be built forward until 40 airframes are in service, one every 18 months.
How many aircraft will there be exactly? No one knows. Here's something to consider though: both the USAF/USN aviation and RuAF and RuN aviation will become far FAR leaner.
So a guesstimate would be:
2020 for RuAF and RuN aviation:
~50 - 100 PAK-FA
48 - 50 Su-35S
~200 Su-34
~150 Su-25SM
~150 Su-24M2
~150 MiG-31BM
~150 - 200 Su-27SM
~24 - 48 MiG-29SMT
~ Unknown # of MiG-35 (RuAF has shown interest, no orders yet)
~ Unknown # of Su-33s
~ Unknown # of MiG-29Ks
~25 Tu-160
~100 Tu-22ME/5
~25 Tu-95MS16